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45 Strategic Seats added to state legislative pages!

Tue, 01/23/2024 - 12:48pm

Blue Ripple Politics

As I noted yesterday, my normal policy for legislative races is to only include districts with a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) rating of less than 10 points. This helps donors concentrate their donations on races where the Democratic nominee has a realistic chance of winning (or losing).

However, it's also important to remember that boosting Democratic turnout for state legislative races, even in solid red districts, also boosts turnout for Democrats running for other seats which overlap that district--such as U.S. House races!

Because of this, and thanks to data provided to me by Blue Ripple Politics, I'm adding a total of 45 more races to my state legislative fundraising pages which have PVI ratings of R+10 or higher. All of these districts overlap significantly with competitive U.S. House races, which means that even if the state legislative candidate has little chance of winning, helping them out also helps the chances of the Democrat running for that U.S. House seat who does have a good chance of holding or flipping their seat!

The districts I'm adding include:

ALASKA (overlap w/AK-AL):

  • HD-01 (R+17): TBD
  • HD-06 (R+10): TBD
  • HD-11 (R+12): TBD
  • HD-36 (R+13): TBD
  • SD-P (R+13): TBD

CALIFORNIA (overlaps w/CA-41):

  • HD-63 (R+10): Chris Shoults

COLORADO (overlaps w/CO-03):

  • HD-058 (R+12): TBD

INDIANA (overlap w/IN-01):

  • HD-015 (R+17): TBD
  • SD-05 (R+13): TBD

IOWA (overlap w/IA-03):

  • HD-25 (R+13): TBD
  • HD-46 (R+12): TBD
  • SD-23 (R+18): TBD

MICHIGAN (overlap w/MI-07, MI-08 and/or MI-10):

  • HD-49 (R+10): TBD
  • HD-60 (R+14): TBD
  • HD-71 (R+15): TBD
  • HD-72 (R+10): TBD
  • HD-95 (R+17): TBD

NEBRASKA (overlaps w/NE-02):

  • SD-31 (R+19): TBD

NEW MEXICO (overlap w/NM-02):

  • HD-008 (R+10): TBD
  • HD-049 (R+18): TBD
  • SD-35 (R+11): TBD

NEW YORK (overlap w/NY-19):

  • HD-102 (R+13): TBD
  • HD-121 (R+14): TBD

NORTH CAROLINA (overlap w/NC-01):

  • HD-010 (R+11): Beatrice Jones
  • SD-02 (R+10): Tare Davis

OHIO (overlap w/OH-09 and/or OH-13):

  • HD-032 (R+11): Jim Colopy
  • HD-044 (R+10): Dave Blythe
  • HD-089 (R+16): Alicia Roshong

OREGON (overlap w/OR-05 and/or OR-06):

  • HD-023 (R+12): TBD
  • HD-051 (R+16): TBD
  • SD-06 (R+19): TBD
  • SD-12 (R+10): TBD

PENNSYLVANIA (overlap w/PA-07, PA-08, PA-10 and/or PA-17):

  • HD-014 (R+15): TBD
  • HD-047 (R+17): TBD
  • HD-087 (R+16): TBD
  • HD-106 (R+11): TBD
  • HD-116 (R+18): TBD
  • HD-138 (R+17): TBD
  • HD-176 (R+10): TBD
  • HD-183 (R+18): TBD
  • HD-199 (R+17): TBD
  • SD-20 (R+19): TBD
  • SD-31 (R+12): TBD
  • SD-47 (R+12): TBD

WASHINGTON (overlaps w/WA-03):

  1. SD-43 (R+13): TBD